Donald Trump launched what his administration describes as the largest deportation operation in United States history, but as the 2026 United States elections draw closer, a growing body of expert opinion suggests his signature immigration crackdown could be shifting from a political advantage into a liability for the Republican Party.
The midterm elections, scheduled for 3 November, give voters the chance to decide who controls Congress, effectively determining how much of Trump's agenda can advance in the remaining years of his presidency. Historically, midterms have functioned as a verdict on the sitting president, and analysts say immigration policy will be central to that judgment.
What the crackdown looks like on the ground
Trump's immigration enforcement program has been sweeping in its scope. Heavily armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have conducted street-level patrols, the US-Mexico border wall has been expanded, and travel restrictions have been imposed on nationals from countries the administration designates as high-risk. Visa applicants now face tighter scrutiny, including examination of their social media activity.
The Department of Homeland Security reports that more than 605,000 people have been deported, with a further 1.9 million recorded as having left the country voluntarily, a phenomenon the administration calls "self-deportation."
Most recently, the administration froze green cards for Microsoft and other major technology outsourcers while opening investigations into nine leading universities, a move analysts say marks one of the most significant escalations against skilled-worker immigration programs. The administration says it targets fraud and protects American jobs.
Emma Shortis, director of the International and Security Affairs Program at the Australia Institute, notes that even as media attention has moved elsewhere, enforcement on the ground has not eased. "The policy and the implementation of that policy continues on as is," she says.
Public opinion is shifting in ways that could hurt Republicans
Despite the crackdown's initial political potency, there are signs that public sentiment has moved significantly since Trump took office. Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, points to June polling by Gallup showing that 31 per cent of Americans now want immigration increased and only 29 per cent want it decreased, with 35 per cent preferring current levels. That is a dramatic change from 2024, when 55 per cent of respondents said they wanted immigration reduced.
"Thanks to President Trump's significant crackdown, there's now basically greater support for increased migration than there has been in years," Mondschein says.
He argues that the crackdown was always as much a political strategy as a deeply held ideological commitment, one that delivered results for Trump in both the 2016 and 2024 elections. Concerns about the US-Mexico border were a defining issue in the 2024 campaign, helping shape voter sentiment in Trump's favour. But with those anxieties now partly addressed in the public mind, the political calculus may be changing.
What this means for the midterms and beyond
Mondschein describes midterm elections as a potential "referendum on the president," noting that the president's party has lost ground in the vast majority of midterms over the past half century. If that pattern holds, immigration policy will be a central battleground.
He also cautions against reading Trump's positions as fixed. Pointing to Trump's past suggestion of automatically granting green cards to every US university graduate, Mondschein says policy continuity is not a hallmark of this administration.
The stakes extend beyond US borders. Experts note the outcome could have implications for Australia, where immigration crackdown debates continue to evolve and where the political lessons of the American experience are being closely watched. How voters respond in November may determine whether aggressive immigration enforcement remains a governing philosophy or becomes a cautionary tale for right-of-centre parties globally.
