Nearly half of all Australian adults are now pessimistic about the country's future, yet a major new survey of 10,000 Australians has found that strong local community ties are keeping social cohesion surprisingly stable, even as economic pressures and global conflicts test the national mood.
The Scanlon Social Cohesion report, released on Thursday, drew on responses from Australians of diverse backgrounds and political views, covering topics ranging from cost of living and immigration to attitudes toward different faiths and cultures. The resulting index score of 78 was consistent with the previous three years, suggesting that despite mounting anxieties, the social fabric has not frayed significantly.
Pessimism on the Rise, but Community Bonds Endure
The proportion of adults who describe themselves as pessimistic or very pessimistic about Australia's future has climbed sharply, reaching almost half of the adult population in 2026. That compares with 43 per cent in 2025 and just 31 per cent in 2018, pointing to a steady and significant deterioration in public confidence over nearly a decade.
One in three adults now believes their personal circumstances will be worse in three to four years, up from 29 per cent the previous year.
Yet researchers found a counterweight to this gloom: a strong sense of local belonging. People reported feeling they could rely on neighbours and find support within their communities, a factor experts say is critical to maintaining cohesion even during difficult periods.
"In some way there is a strong sense of pessimism among many Australians," said the head of the Scanlon Foundation Research Institute. "But there is still a lot of optimism as well. People feel like they can rely on their neighbours and find support locally. That's important in keeping social cohesion."
This finding echoes broader research on how adversity can, in some circumstances, strengthen community bonds rather than dissolve them. For more on how financial and social pressures are shaping Australian lives, see what the HILDA survey reveals about Australians.
Cost of Living and Housing Dominate Public Concern
The economic squeeze is front of mind for most respondents. Just under half nominated cost of living, inflation or housing as the single most important issue facing Australia today. The report's lead author, a senior demographer from the Australian National University, highlighted the scale of hardship behind these numbers.
"At least one in five of us are saying we're sometimes going without health or medical care, and 10 per cent of us are saying that we're poor or struggling or we're missing out on meals or not being able to pay the rent or mortgage," he said.
These pressures were described as placing an "increasing strain" on social cohesion and amplifying broader community anxieties. With housing affordability a central concern, attitudes toward living arrangements are also shifting across generations.
Attitudes Toward Faith and Immigration Shift
The report documented notable changes in how Australians view people of different religious and cultural backgrounds, with researchers linking the shifts to global conflicts and the increasing politicisation of identity.
Attitudes toward Muslims had been improving steadily until 2023, when conflict in Gaza escalated. By 2026, 43 per cent of respondents held negative views toward Muslims, with 18 per cent describing their attitudes as very negative. Negative sentiment toward Jewish people also rose, climbing to 18 per cent in 2026 from 13 per cent in 2024. Declining favourability was also recorded for Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists, while support for Christians increased.
"Current conflicts in Gaza and elsewhere are seeing pressures on our intercultural harmony and connection," the report's author said, adding that declining support for diversity was also fuelling more negative attitudes toward immigrants from parts of Asia and Africa.
On immigration more broadly, 59 per cent of respondents said the level of immigration to Australia is too high, a sharp rise from 52 per cent in 2025 and well above the average of 39 per cent recorded through most of the 2010s.
What the Findings Mean Going Forward
The survey paints a picture of a nation under real strain, with economic hardship and global instability eroding confidence and complicating attitudes toward diversity. But the stability of the overall cohesion index suggests Australia has not yet reached a tipping point, with local community connections acting as a buffer against deeper social fractures. Researchers indicated that sustaining those local bonds will be essential as cost of living pressures continue to bite.
