As political pressure builds for steep cuts to Australia's migration intake, prominent business figures are pushing back — warning that reducing numbers without a clear focus on skills could leave critical industries short of workers and damage the broader economy.
The debate has intensified ahead of a federal election, with net overseas migration (NOM) forecast to ease from roughly 300,000 to 245,000 people this financial year. The government's current permanent migration program sits at 185,000 places, with around 70 per cent allocated to skilled workers and most of the remainder to their families. Understanding why Australia's migration figures remain elevated has become an increasingly important part of the policy conversation.
Political positions diverge on migration numbers
Calls for sharper reductions have come from across the political spectrum. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has advocated cutting the permanent intake to 130,000, while the Coalition has argued migration should be capped in line with housing construction — without nominating a specific figure. Labor has yet to settle on a final position.
Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner said he broadly supports a migration intake somewhere in the 200,000 to 300,000 range annually — broadly consistent with the Labor government's current trajectory.
"We're a country of migrants, and they contribute an enormous amount not only to our economy, but to our multicultural society, and most of that, I believe, is quite positive," Mr Turner said.
He acknowledged that population growth could not continue indefinitely but argued that immigration remains "the main way Australia grows", particularly as birth rates slow across many developed nations.
Industries warn of worker shortages if migration is cut
Business leaders from sectors including aged care and residential construction have been among the most vocal in resisting significant reductions to migrant numbers.
Leora Healthcare co-CEO Esha Oberoi highlighted how deeply her sector depends on visa holders, noting that more than 45 per cent of the company's nearly 800 employees are on visas. Without sustained skilled migration, she warned, aged care would struggle to meet growing demand from an ageing population.
Metricon CEO Brad Duggan pointed to the vital role migrant communities play in Australia's residential building sector, saying large communities have taken responsibility for key trades and are "a really important part of the Australian residential housing industry."
The housing construction angle is particularly pointed given the Coalition's own proposal to link migration caps to building rates — a framing that leading building companies argue actually underscores why skilled migrants are indispensable to the industry.
Kogan urges a national — not just business — perspective
Not all voices from the business world have aligned squarely with peak industry groups. Ecommerce entrepreneur and rich-lister Ruslan Kogan — who arrived in Melbourne from communist Belarus as a child in 1989 and went on to build several successful ecommerce businesses — cautioned against viewing migration policy purely through a commercial lens.
"I think immigration is a very important area of policy for the building of a nation, and so it needs to be looked at from the nation as a whole perspective, not just what the business community or certain areas of the economy might think is best for them," Mr Kogan said.
While he declined to nominate a preferred annual intake figure, Mr Kogan argued that Australia's standing as a desirable destination means it can afford to be highly selective. He drew a parallel to corporate recruiting, suggesting that quality and fit — not volume — should drive decision-making.
Shifting the debate from volume to value
Across the varied positions on display, a common thread emerging from the business community is a desire to reframe the public conversation — away from raw headcount and towards the specific skills and attributes migrants bring. Whether that argument gains traction with policymakers will likely depend on how the migration debate evolves in the lead-up to the next federal election, with both major parties still calibrating their final positions.
