A new report from the Australian National University has identified a critical but largely ignored factor driving Australia's persistently high migration numbers: not a surge in new arrivals, but a significant slowdown in the number of people leaving. The findings, released this week, challenge the dominant narrative in one of Australia's most heated political debates.
The overlooked side of Australia's migration equation
Much of the public and political conversation around migration in Australia has focused on controlling the number of people coming in. But researchers at the ANU's Migration Hub argue that equal attention needs to be paid to departures — and right now, departures are lagging well behind historical norms.
At the heart of the issue is the official measure known as net overseas migration , or NOM — the figure both major parties have pledged to bring down. NOM is calculated by subtracting the number of people who leave Australia for at least 12 months from the number who arrive and stay for at least 12 months. When departures slow, NOM rises — even if arrivals remain stable.
"Contrary to popular belief, stabilising the migration system after the pandemic is not only a matter of cutting arrivals," said Alan Gamlen, director of the ANU Migration Hub and co-author of the report. "It's a matter of managing departures."
How the pandemic disrupted Australia's departure cycle
When Australia's international borders closed during the COVID-19 pandemic, both arrivals and departures plunged. When borders reopened, arrivals rebounded sharply before gradually easing back toward pre-pandemic levels. Departures, however, recovered far more slowly — remaining relatively flat for several years before only recently beginning to climb.
The reason, the report explains, lies in a series of policy decisions made during the pandemic. To relieve pressure on temporary migrants stranded in Australia and to address acute labour shortages, the government introduced visa extensions and other concessions.
"Temporary migrants who were caught in Australia needed some kind of relief," Gamlen said. "Businesses who desperately needed workers needed some kind of relief, and the solution to that was to create all sorts of extensions to temporary visas for people who had a limited amount of stay in Australia."
Those extensions effectively delayed the normal departure cycle for a significant cohort of temporary migrants — and that delay is still working its way through the system.
Where the numbers stand now
Net overseas migration peaked at 556,000 in 2022-23 as borders reopened and pent-up arrivals flooded in. Since then, the figure has fallen — but more slowly than policymakers had hoped.
According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, NOM sat at 301,000 in 2025-26 , down slightly from 306,000 the previous year but still above the Labor government's forecast of 295,000. The government is projecting a further decline to 245,000 in the current financial year.
Both Labor and the Coalition have made reducing NOM a central policy commitment, with the figure frequently cited as a barometer of success in managing migration pressures. Critics of high migration levels have pointed to links with housing affordability pressures and strain on public services, narratives that researchers say have contributed to rising anti-immigrant sentiment.
A more nuanced debate needed
The ANU report's authors argue that NOM is frequently misused or misunderstood in political debate, with the public discussion rarely accounting for the departure side of the ledger.
Gamlen warned that without a clearer understanding of what is actually driving the numbers, policy responses risk being misdirected — focusing entirely on restricting arrivals while the real pressure point remains the slow return of departures to pre-pandemic levels.
Migration has become one of the most polarising issues in Australian public life, with debates spanning housing affordability, social cohesion and population growth . Experts continue to stress that migration is essential to Australia's workforce and economic health — but the new ANU analysis suggests the full picture requires looking beyond who is arriving, and paying far closer attention to who is leaving.
